Fantasy related but good info....
Dose: One Man's Trash
The past two weeks have been nothing short of amazing here at Rotoworld basketball headquarters, as we've enjoyed the biggest spike of traffic in our site's history in the basketball section. Approaching the heart of baseball draft season you can't find a single ballplayer in our top-10 searches over the past week, whereas Troy Murphy has been searched a record 12,000 times. There are a lot of theories for the huge increase of interest in fantasy basketball, but my take on it includes a bit of everything.
For one, whereas fantasy football is a lot like poker – you get in with the best hand and hope your team doesn't get decimated by injuries or timeshares, the best owners usually win out in fantasy basketball. And unlike fantasy baseball, which is tremendously stat-driven and requires a broader look at trends over the long-term, fantasy basketball boils down to two things – is a guy playing now and is he producing.
Owners don't have to wait 30 days to determine that Bengie Molina isn't hitting the slider, and a season's worth of work doesn't go to waste when Tom Brady blows his knee out – at least, not nearly as often. When things go haywire in basketball, like in Detroit for instance, owners can cut bait with a guy like Tracy McGrady and move on.
This perfect mix of simplicity and skill gets played out every night like a locomotive out of control. Owners come home from a long day's work, flip on NBA TV, get their laptop out and login to Twitter, and take part in the show with Doctor A., Adam Levitan, Matt Stroup, Ryan Knaus, and yours truly. We've created basketball's biggest chat room with one singular goal in mind -- #winning.
There's no more waiting for overnight news, and we're timing the race to the waiver wire with the seconds-hand now. In the process, folks are getting their fantasy fix seven days per week, hitting F5 on Rotoworld's NBA Player News page with the fervor of a ferret on crack. We give you information in seconds, we digest it, and we spin it so you don't have to. Whether we're right or wrong – you guys are the first to know, and by the emails and tweets you send us, you have become some of the most knowledgeable basketball minds on the Internet today.
It's a tremendous thing to be a part of, and I often have to pinch myself when thinking that I get to be in the eye of the storm every single night. The past two weeks have been some of the most riveting in the history of fantasy basketball, and that is why I believe we have gathered in mass. It's the game we love, with the people we love, and in some cases complete strangers. It's the chance to take part in this great game that the vast majority of us will never have in reality.
And best of all – the chance to show 11 other owners that we're simply better than them.
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Steve Alexander a/k/a Doctor A
Matt Stroup
Adam Levitan
Ryan Knaus
Aaron Bruski
One Man's Trash
Marcus Thornton killed owners on draft day. Going from hero to zero in a Monty Williams nanosecond, it wasn't just owners that were shaking their heads – all of New Orleans did the same thing. But the Hornets were winning, and Thornton's defensive deficiencies seemed to justify Williams' decision to put him under a rock. Any signs of life were squashed with successive DNP-CDs, and then in a sideshow trade that swapped him for Carl Landry, we all asked ourselves, 'could it be?'
Well, the one-man scoring wolfpack answered the question last night, scoring 26 points on 11-of-18 shooting (including four treys), a night after wowing an emotional Kings crowd with a 29-point performance that brought the desperate crowd something they haven't seen much of – a win. And like any good fantasy pickle, the potential return of Tyreke Evans (foot) and presence of Jermaine Taylor loomed largely.
Not anymore. He probably isn't available in your league anymore, and if he is, stop reading and grab him now unless your roster is full with guaranteed producers during the fantasy playoffs. Jermaine Taylor has been minimized, as Thornton started the second half of last night's game, and Taylor finished with 10 points in just 15 minutes (and four points coming with Portland not defending late). As for Evans, we simply don't know what his mindset will be playing for the team without a city right now. If Evans does come back, there is already talk that he could play at PG (Beno Udrih sell-high alert), and barring a faceplant by Thornton there is a very good chance that Paul Westphal finds a way to keep him on the court.
It's all in the wrist
Eric Gordon returned last night for the Clippers, and despite the fact that he is playing through pain, he went on to score 24 points on 8-of-18 shooting . For all intents and purposes, Gordon is back and Randy Foye (two points, 20 minutes) is done. I'm not entirely sold that Gordon can make it through the rest of the season, and he's a shutdown candidate at a minimum, but I'm more interested in the case of Deron Williams and Monta Ellis. Williams (bone bruise left hand, right wrist) said on Wednesday that he believes he needs 3-4 weeks of rest to get healed, though he will play in Friday's game across the pond. Ellis' right (shooting) wrist bothered him last night, though you couldn't truly tell by the 21 points on 9-of-20 shooting with three rebounds and four assists.
Now I've been on you guys to consider your options with Williams for about three weeks now, and Jerry Sloan's best friend has been doing his part by putting up big lines on almost every outing. Now he's on the verge of being on code red with this wrist injury for the rest of the season, and could also miss time in March due to his wife's pregnancy. It may be too late to move him for equal value, but owners should consider any Round 1-2 values in a deal right now. Even if you lose on the deal, you win in a way, because 90% of something is better than the possibility of a goose egg when it counts.
As for Ellis, I'm much less concerned, but I'll be listening to any Round 1, high-Round 2 offers that come my way. He has played a ton of minutes and is pretty banged up himself, and this year he's the type that won't let anybody know he's about to go down – until he's down.
And while we're on the topic of studs, let's talk about pseudo-stud Chris Paul. He'll drop the pseudo once he starts to play like one again, but he's a stark reminder that nobody is exempt from being traded in a fantasy league. I offered this bit of advice almost a month ago to the day when he started failing the eyeball test:
Don't bury your head in the sand and hope it all works out. Start making plans now, figure out what you are comfortable getting in return for a player of his caliber, and make sure it's a lot. Again, I'm not saying that you must trade him, but sometimes a hedge against a risk is worth the cost to insure that you don't find yourself holding a total loss.
He has played at an eighth round value in 8-cat leagues over the past three weeks, and while I pointed to his knee as the culprit, and yesterday Doc pointed at free agency – it's probably both. He will most certainly improve over the aforementioned stretch, but I'll be trading him for anybody without injury risks in the first round, and could easily dip into the second or third round depending on the player.
Thunderstruck
Though the injury doesn't appear to be serious, the fact that Kevin Durant left the arena in a walking boot after rolling his ankle earlier in the night deserves top billing in this column. Replays looked pretty bad and he has hurt the ankle twice before this season, but the boot was reportedly 'precautionary.' Beat writer extraordinaire Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman says that his 'guess' is that Durant plays on Friday in Atlanta, and Durant was seen smiling after the game. For now, it looks like a crisis has been averted.
One crisis that hasn't been averted has been the curious case of Josh Smith, whose MRI was taken on Wednesday and the results of which have not been made available at the time of this writing. His status has been an on-and-off affair with an MRI originally scheduled, then canceled, and then re-scheduled after he felt pain that caused him to be scratched from Wednesday's game. The mere fact that the results weren't immediately passed along, with the corresponding radio silence out of Atlanta, is cause for concern – and owners can only cross their fingers and hope for the best.
Should Smoove miss any time, owners can expect more good things out of Al Horford, who single-handedly brought the Hawks back in a raucous comeback with 31 points, 16 rebounds, two steals, and his first three of the year in a huge win over the Bulls. Joe Johnson, who hit just 5-of-20 shots but still managed a nice 12-point, seven-rebound, nine-assist line, will also be leaned upon heavily if Smoove goes down at all.
Rounding out the injury report from last night are Stephen Jackson (hamstring), Glen Davis (knee), and Arron Afflalo (ankle). There is some legitimate concern out of Charlotte about Captain Jack's hammy, and with Charlotte's playoff chances fading fast it's a situation worth monitoring. Moving him while his two 30+ point games are fresh in owners' minds may not be a bad idea, though last night's 7-point stinker isn't helping matters. Davis went up for a dunk on the game's last play last night, and aside from the fact that dunking is an adventure for him anyway, he hurt his left knee on the way up and apparently has been playing on a bum knee for a couple of weeks. He's going to get an MRI today, and prior to this revelation he looked like an alright pickup after Boston sold their title hopes, er frontcourt, to the Thunder. At a minimum, he is looking doubtful for Friday's game. As for Afflalo, he rolled his ankle early in last night's game and played through it, so we'll learn a lot if his status for tonight's game isn't compromised. As of now, there are no indications that he will not play.
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Last night, redemption was spelled R-A-N-D
Whether or not Anthony Randolph truly got redemption last night is debatable, but when Kurt Rambis ran with the 'twos' last night and came out of Detroit with a win, Randolph stood on the top of the mountain with 19 points on 8-of-13 shooting, 10 rebounds, and a steal in 25 minutes. Sure, Darko Milicic was out for personal reasons and Michael Beasley (3-of-9 FG) couldn't hit the barn, but one of the most overhyped players in recent fantasy basketball history made his case.
The skinny is this – there is no safe answer. If you think that Milicic is automatically going away and that Rambis is going to give Randolph the leeway he never gave Kevin Love – you're overly optimistic. Last night's playing time pattern took a huge step away from Rambis' stated goal of bringing along Randolph slowly, and while all of Randolph's tools were on display, it's anybody's guess at this point if he can keep it up. So add him if you want, but assess your situation and whether or not you can afford stashing him for the upside, or if a safer player with a lower ceiling is a better fit.
Samardo's the name, bustin you up is his game
Samardo Samuels, who sounds more like a character from a Quentin Tarantino movie than a PF for the Cavaliers, exceeded all expectations in a career-night with 23 points on 10-of-18 shooting and 10 rebounds in 34 minutes. Virtually all of his competition for minutes is hurt. Semih Erden is dealing with a shoulder issue, Luke Harangody left last night's game with a hip pointer, and Joey Graham is still on a minute-limit with his knee issue. Watching last night's game, what caught my eye is his physical play, and after the game what caught my eye was the praise heaped upon him by Gregg Popovich. I'm ready to call him a must-add in most formats, if anything because he should continue to get 30+ mpg, and J.J. Hickson sometimes forgets to rebound the ball.
Also from the Gregg Popovich player-tree, Alonzo Gee took over the starting SF job in Cleveland and responded with a season-high 18 points, seven rebounds, and two threes. He got the job because Christian Eyenga was struggling with his weak-side defense, and once his offensive game went in the toilet it was time for Byron Scott to make the move. Similarly situated as Eyenga from a fantasy perspective, Gee is worth an add in many cases, but the fact that Eyenga is still going to be around should keep owners from dropping a player with consistent value.
Always send your 'A' team
The trade that sent Gerald Wallace to Portland was a major buzzkill for owners of Nicolas Batum, and to a lesser degree Wesley Matthews, as well. We cautioned owners to take a wait-and-see approach, however, and that's because we weren't quite sure who, if anybody, would take the biggest hit. Nate McMillan took a step toward helping all three out by declaring that once Rudy Fernandez (flu) was back, that he was going to slide LaMarcus Aldridge over to center and bring Marcus Camby (knee) off the bench.
This is a great move in terms of reality basketball, in my opinion, if anything because the Blazers have no frontcourt depth to speak of. They also keep their best players on the court for more minutes this way, and while they give up some size, they do it with an extremely athletic bunch. The big losers here are Camby's owners, but they might also benefit since his knee's health is a real concern. He won't be a must-start player coming off the bench, but if last night's four points, 13 rebounds, one assist, and one steal are any indication, he'll still have some utility and the blocks will certainly come. And while we've insinuated through our blurbs that the only direction that Batum and Matthews' value could go is down, we probably should have done a better job in communicating that they could also hold steady, too, which appears to be the case.
Made in Detroit
I don't want to delve into the mind of John Kuester too much here, but Rodney Stuckey has emerged as the team's PG, Ben Gordon is providing low-end fantasy value starting at SG, Austin Daye is starting at SF with Tayshaun Prince's back either injured or not, Greg Monroe is now a must-start player, Tracy McGrady has fallen out of the rotation, and Richard Hamilton is looking like he has a job now coming off the bench. All of this could change, but I'm starting to get the sense that aside from Daye and Prince possibly swapping places, that we're looking at the new rotation. Daye went off for a career-high 22 points, four rebounds, three assists, two threes, and a block, and is a fine roster stash for his ever-elusive upside, but I'm having a hard time reconciling the fact that Prince is in a contract year. If he's healthy, my guess is that he will play, and Daye will have to find his minutes somewhere else – perhaps at PF instead of Chris Wilcox.
The Sun rises with Brooks and sets with Carter
This is not a 'run out and grab Aaron Brooks' moment, but I have to admit that I'm intrigued enough to consider stashing him if things keep up. If you forgot everything you knew about the guy and watched him play last night you'd recall the player that gave the Lakers fits in the playoffs. On the other side of the spectrum is Vince Carter, who left last night's game with a mouth laceration, and has become droppable and a shell of the shell of his former self.
A few things are going on here. One, Steve Nash is no sure thing to stick around during the offseason, and Brooks is now his successor. Two, while Jared Dudley would also benefit from a demotion or shutdown of Carter, Brooks is more than capable of playing SG next to Nash, too. Phoenix won't get away with it for long stretches, but they'll gladly take the mismatch on the offensive side if it means keeping their best players on the floor. Third, the Suns are currently 1.5 games out of the playoffs and surrounded by Utah and Houston on the outside looking in behind Memphis. Should they fall out of playoff contention, don't think they won't start playing Brooks to get him ready for next year.
Is all of that enough to run out and pick up Brooks? No, but I'll be watching with my hands pressed together like Montgomery Burns.
Four Quarters of Fury
First Quarter: George Hill reminded owners why he needs to be owned in all formats with 22 points, five boards, and five assists, while DeJuan Blair patched things up with his owners by double-doubling with 14 points, 10 boards, and a block. It's not going to be smooth sailing, but the fact that Tim Duncan will be rested is the tiebreaker here. Anthony Parker hit just 1-of-7 FGs for three points, five boards, and two assists, but with Daniel Gibson getting shut down for at least Friday's game due to his lingering quad injury, I think owners should have patience. Parker could be a victim of the youth movement, but Baron Davis' (knee) health risks also add a level of security here. Speaking of Davis, he is expected to debut on Friday, which ends the gravy train for Ramon Sessions' owners, but Sessions should still be stashed indefinitely. He could be huge down the stretch in the very possible event that Davis gets shut down or loses interest. The Pacers got throttled last night, and we would caution owners not to look into much about that game – they will improve. The same thing goes for the Bobcats, whose 40-point loss was the worst in their history. If anything, the potential injury to Stephen Jackson gives owners of D.J. Augustin, Boris Diaw, and Gerald Henderson more hope. Also, give Tyrus Thomas (knee) a look – he could return to a depleted lineup in a week and Diaw isn't winning any awards lately. On the other side of the coin were the Nuggets, who can't wipe the smiles off their faces now that Melo is gone, with virtually the entire team showing mediocre-to-decent fantasy production in the blowout win over the Cats.
Second Quarter: Kirk Hinrich didn't have a great fantasy outing last night with just three points, two boards, and two assists, but he held Derrick Rose to 5-of-21 shooting, and should be just fine as a fantasy asset once he gets acclimated. There is no position battle here with Jeff Teague. Dorell Wright played through an ankle issue and hit just 4-of-14 FG, but had 14 points, six boards, three assists, one steal, two blocks, and a three, proving why he can't leave lineups. Stephen Curry could be due for a hot streak if Monta Ellis' wrist issues continue to worsen, and scored 29 points with nine rebounds and five assists. There's so much hate out there for a guy who hasn't dropped below second round value all year, and ranks No. 6 overall in 8-cat on a per-game basis on the season. The Wizards are a mess and could mail their season in at any time, if they haven't already. Nick Young had 31 points and Andray Blatche is over his case of 'South Beach hip,' scoring 20 points with nine boards, six assists, a steal, and a block. Blatche is one of my favorite guys to own because of how amazingly offensive it is that he is a fantasy stud when he is so terrible in reality. Chase Budinger set owners' expectations too high last week, and it's also possible the Rockets' fourth game in five days has been a bit much for his untested legs, as he had another pedestrian outing with 11 points, a three, and not much else. He'll probably be better than this going forward, so stay patient depending on your options.
Third Quarter: Jonny Flynn had his first good game of the year, handing out a career-high 14 assists with eight points and two steals in 30 minutes off the bench. He was tearing up Ben Gordon and Will Bynum, who aren't exactly known for their defense, but was shut down when Rodney Stuckey was put on him. Luke Ridnour hit all five of his shots and by no means did anything to lose his job last night, and this looks like a case of Kurt Rambis running with his second-unit while they were hot. I won't be adding Flynn in any 14-team formats, nor do I think that Ridnour owners should panic just yet. If you can find me a Minnesota basketball writer or fan that thought Flynn was worth a pile of beans before last night I'll wash your dog, so give it a game if you can before dropping lukewarm-hand Luke. Trevor Ariza left last night's game with a strained left adductor, and owners can only hope that it is the reason his playing time has been clipped. I don't own him anywhere, but if I did, I would be moving on. Serge Ibaka went off for seven points, 12 rebounds, and six blocks, and congratulations are in order if you stuck with him this long. James Harden scored another 20 points last night, and he should be owned in 12-team leagues. He really looks sharp.
Fourth Quarter: Toney Douglas went off in place of Chauncey Billups (thigh) with 24 points, four rebounds, and five assists, but with Billups possibly playing Friday his time in the spotlight will be short-lived. Shawne Williams (16 points, four treys, four boards) and him will battle for the scraps going forward, and owners should simply watch to see if one of them can emerge with consistency. As mentioned earlier, Jared Dudley is worth watching to see if Vince Carter gets moved to the bench, and put up 15 points with five boards and some other goodies. Channing Frye got embarrassed in his return matchup with KG, who punched him in the junk in their last outing, scoring just four points before leaving after suffering an eye contusion in the same collision that sidelined Carter. There are no indications the injury is serious at this time. Troy Murphy made his debut and left his lungs on the court, missing all three shots he took on his way to one point in 13 minutes. Yes, folks, he is brutally out of shape. Don't hesitate to grab a hot free agent while he gets thrown into the fire, as there's not a ton of upside there and it's a bit disappointing that he didn't keep himself in better shape. Chris Kaman broke out, and while he should have been owned in all 12-team leagues prior to last night, he made the case stronger with 21 points, nine boards, and a block. DeAndre Jordan also played well with eight points, 16 boards, a steal, and three blocks, and is worth a look if he was dropped. As for Mo Williams, his ankle injury isn't anything a move to Southern California to play with Blake Griffin couldn't help, and he put up 17 points with 11 assists, though his 5-of-14 FG mark was a buzzkill. I have this odd feeling he's going to finish strong.
Thursday Night Lights
The Magic head to Miami to take on the Heat and Denver heads to Utah, which for me is a nice championship contender-game to mix in with two teams with new personnel. We may also get treated to Mike Bibby's debut in Miami, which will be better in reality than in fantasy. There are no real injuries that we're waiting on, so owners can sit back and enjoy the ride. See you on Twitter, folks.
